Sunday, November 23, 2008

Multiplier Effect

Because of the developing economic crisis, I've been reading more economics blogs. My favorites are Econbrowser, hosted by Profs. Hamilton and Chinn; Macro-Man an anonymous but extremely incisive and hilarious day-trader*; and Follow the Money by Brad Setser. Any other reader favorites?

One excellent post by Prof. Chinn has direct relevance to governmental policy initiatives to deal with the economic problems. Her post is based on work by Mark Zandi of Economy.com. The question is: given that the economy needs to be stimulated, what method of stimulation yields the largest economic benefit. The benefit here is expressed as the stimulus multiplier, which is the amount of increase in GDP per unit of stimulus. For example, if we simply gave every person in the country $1, each could go out and buy a McDonald's value menu item. But the benefit doesn't stop there because with the increased consumption, McDonald's has to hire more workers, who in turn consume more; purchase more supplies from its suppliers, who in turn hire more workers, etc. So in principle, a $1 stimulus package can have more than $1 benefit to overall production.

So which economic stimuli had the greatest benefit? The top three were:
  • Temporarily Increase Food-stamps (multiplier 1.73)
  • Extend Unemployment Insurance Benefits (multiplier 1.64)
  • Increase Infrastructure Spending (multiplier 1.59)
The first two items have the obvious benefits of keeping people on their feet, but also provide an extra 64-73% advantage beyond the direct stimulus. Of course these benefits can only be temporary. On the other hand, the third item has the advantage of improving neglected infrastructure -- a long term "capital gain" -- while at the same time providing an extra 60% bang for our buck.

Now for the worst stimulus concepts:
  • Make Bush Tax Cuts Permanent (multiplier 0.29)
  • Cut Corporate Tax Rate (multiplier 0.30)
  • Make Dividend Tax Cuts Permanent (multiplier 0.37)
Since these multipliers are less than unity, it means that for every dollar of tax break, the country's production actually goes down. Of course some small segment of the population may benefit from such tax cuts, but in hard economic times, it's not clear why they would deserve a benefit when the broad population and the overall economy do not. To be fair, a few of the tax cut concepts do a little bit better, most most are break-even at best.

Note that these tax cuts that are discussed most readily as the solution to the economic problems have some of the worst possible effects on the economy. In fact, a tax cut actually hinders production, compared to other stimuli. Dr. Chinn discusses some reasons this may be true.

What fascinates me is the question of whether the multipliers work in reverse. If reducing corporate taxes by $1.00 hobbles the economy by $0.70, then would raising taxes by $1.00 improve the economy by $0.30? As heretical as that sounds, it seems that while raising taxes will withdraw $1.00 from corporate coffers and hence from the economy, it enables the government to spend $1.00 on more needful and worthy areas (say, on stimuli that have a large multiplier!).

The situation is somewhat more complicated because each of the stimulus concepts have different time scales, so it would require a more delicate touch than brute force. But it would be nice if, in the political dialog about what to do next, actual economic data would be used rather than mindless rhetoric with zero substantiation.

12 comments:

SBFH said...

now THAT is interesting. I am actually quite pleased you went to the effort of reading these blogs and then summarizing this particular reasoning for the better good (or at least my benefit).

Craig Markwardt said...

Thanks! I was writing it just for you... I think you're the only one who reads this :-)

SBFH said...

a ha ha, that, sir, is totally untrue. You have legions of fans, but I will submit that I am probably your only fan who reads nothing but People magazine and therefore your only fan who increases her education so significantly by reading your blog.

Craig Markwardt said...

You flatter me. But People magazine does cover Stephen Hawking, right?

Anonymous said...

Data? Data!! You expect anyone to use actual data?

Well, actually, I do expect Mr. Obama to make use of that whole intelligence thing and pay attention to reality. But I also expect to be disappointed. Cause it's, y'know, politics.

I must admit I'm somewhat surprised by the data. Apparently reality does have a liberal bias.

Anonymous said...

I thought the explanation was excellent. Especially the part about hamburgers. Any time you use food when you're writing about economics or science you know it has to be good. mmmm!

AW

Alex Witoslawski said...

Interesting that you say this, because Christine Romer, the new head of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama pointed out how tax cuts have a higher multiplier than spending increases. This claim is not only backed up by empirical observation but also a priori reasoning: spending increases can only reduce economic growth by increasing interest rates (as government takes on debt), increasing inflation (as that debt is monetized), and increasing taxes in the future (as the rest of the debt is paid off). Furthermore, tax increases reduce the incentive to earn more, act as a barrier of entry against small businesses, and deplete savings and investment (which are the key to economic growth).

Craig Markwardt said...

@AJ, that's an interesting paper, but I'm not sure I agree with your point. The paper you referred to shows that the stimulative effects of a tax cut is not felt for 2-3 years after the cut. The time horizon in my post was one year. Perhaps that's why the authors did not reach particularly strong conclusions about tax cuts made in response to recessions. Finally, the authors did not consider the effect of government spending changes on GDP, so I have no idea what is the basis for your claim about the relative multiplier effects.

Craig Markwardt said...

As a follow-up, here is commentary by Christina Romer, the aforementioned chair of the presidential council of economic advisors:

"Both our internal estimates and those of highly respected private forecasters suggest that the [president's stimulus] plan will be immensely helpful. As the President has often said, conditions will surely get worse before they get better. But, they will get better. The plan will save or create 3 to 4 million jobs by the end of 2010."

Anonymous said...

Thank you for the great information! I would not have discovered this otherwise!.

Anonymous said...

How can i ask you for more details? Great post needda know more...

Anonymous said...

Awesome post. Do you mind if I ask what your source is for this information?